Like it or not, the fragmentation of British politics is here to stay. Gone are the days when 90% of British people voted either Labour or Conservative on an 80% turnout, as they did in the fifties. Gone are the days of solid majority governments with clear mandates and an unassailable determination to force through unpopular policies. What the wake of the 2016 local and regional elections have shown is that the UK is now a multi-party system and that party politics are has gained a new fragility. The era of knife-edge politics has dawned.
Two events are instructive in this argument. The first is the outcome of the local and regional elections. The second is an incredible U-turn by the Conservative government on Academy Schools in the face of potential backbench rebellion, serving as a reminder that even the national government’s majority is slender. The results of the local and regional government elections are very revealing about the state of party politics. In Scotland, the SNP did not secure an overall majority, they were just two seats short. As one witty journalist observed, they have SNPeaked. Equally revealing is Ruth Davidson’s remarkable achievement of raising the Conservatives to become the party of opposition in Scotland, leaving Labour trailing a poor third. The Greens and Lib-Dems secured just a handful of seats each. In Wales, Labour failed to secure an overall majority by just one seat. They won 29 seats to Plaid’s 12, the Conservative’s 11 and, (this is important) UKIP’s 7. In the local elections the Conservatives lost 35 seats, but Labour (who should have done better) lost 24. The Liberal Democrats (gained 39 seats) and UKIP (gained twenty six seats) were the big winners of the night. What this tells us is that the stranglehold that the Conservative and Labour Parties once had on British Politics has gone, probably forever. The SNP, Plaid Cymru, and particularly UKIP (because it has wider national appeal) have gained traction. As a consequence, nowhere in the national and regional legislatures in the UK does a political party have a secure overall majority. Even in local government, 23 local authorities are in ‘no overall control’, with 8 others, like Southampton, enjoying only a slender majority for the party in control (a 3 or fewer seat majority). That amounts to over a quarter of all local authorities. And even in national government, the Conservatives have such a small majority that Cameron dare not risk rebellion over the Academy School’s policy, which was much trumpeted in George Osborne’s last Budget speech. Other recent U-turns by the government in the face of potential backbench rebellion include: plans to cut tax credits were abandoned; Cameron has agreed to accept more refugee children; further talks are taking place about junior doctor’s contracts; and Sunday trading hours were not extended as the government wished. A new politics is emerging, driven by the continuing 21st century fragmentation of the party system. A new politics where parties cannot expect to have overall control of legislatures and where compromises have to be made. A new politics where fragile minority governments (at all levels) seek support from other parties on a vote-by-vote basis, and where coalitions are far more likely. This is the knife-edge politics of today.
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